"Evidence"

Tension is mounting slightly these past few days due to the new reports coming out that North Korea is being held responsible for the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan on March 26th. (see my previous post here).

According to the Joongang Daily there was evidence of a North Korean serial number found on a torpedo fragment:

“A North Korean-manufactured torpedo that carried a 250-kologram [551-pound] warhead is confirmed to be responsible for the explosion."

The decisive evidence was torpedo fragments collected from the sinking site. The propeller of the torpedo was recently recovered and a North Korean marking was on it, the ministry said. The marking read “1 Beon” using the Arabic numeral and the Korean letter that means number.

The recovered components were identical to the designs of a North Korean sonar-tracking torpedo depicted on an arms export catalog of the communist regime.

The experts also based their conclusion on analysis of evidence collected from the site of the sinking, the hull of the salvaged ship, postmortem examinations of the dead sailors, seismic waves, simulation of underwater explosions and currents near the sinking site, the ministry said.

 Here is a decent overview from CNN:

The DPRK has denied the allegations:

North Korea immediately challenged the report and threatened to go to war if the South retaliates or imposes sanctions. The North's highest power organ, the National Defense Commission, chaired by leader Kim Jong-il, also said it intends to send a verification team to South Korea to disprove the probe's findings.

Last week, Kim Myong Chol, who is often called an "unofficial" spokesman of Kim Jong-il and North Korea, wrote the following as it was posted on the Asia Times Online website:

Mission impossible
There are four important points that make it clear that a North Korean submarine did not sink the South Korean corvette.

Fact 1.North Korean submarines are not stealthy enough to penetrate heavily guarded South Korean waters at night and remain undetected by the highly touted anti-submarine warfare units of the American and South Korean forces. A North Korean submarine would be unable to outmaneuver an awesome array of high-tech Aegis warships, identify the corvette Cheonan and then slice it in two with a torpedo before escaping unscathed, leaving no trace of its identity.

Fact 2. The sinking took place not in North Korean waters but well inside tightly guarded South Korean waters, where a slow-moving North Korean submarine would have great difficulty operating covertly and safely, unless it was equipped with AIP (air-independent propulsion) technology.

Fact 2: The disaster took place precisely in the waters where what the Pentagon has called "one of the world's largest simulated exercises" was underway. This war exercise, known as "Key Resolve/Foal Eagle" did not end on March 18 as was reported but actually ran from March 18 to April 30.

Fact 3: The Key Resolve/Foal Eagle exercise on the West Sea near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) was aimed at keeping a more watchful eye on North Korea as well as training for the destruction of weapons of mass destruction in the North. It involved scores of shiny, ultra-modern US and South Korean warships equipped with the latest technology.

The incident has become a huge issue, and is gaining momentum as the new evidence agreed upon by the multi-national team of US, Australian, Swedish, and South Korean experts that the North is the culprit and that the serial number discovered is the "smoking gun".

Relations are also being strained due to Kim Jong Il's recent trip to China where he was publicly embraced as China showed it still supports the communist dictatorship as it's friendly neighbor.  The trip had been anticipated for quite some time, and was made in early May shortly after the Cheonan's sinking, perhaps as a way to strengthen ties and support if it came to light that the North was involved.

President Obama has pledged his support to the South, as the two countries are very close. Obama phoned President Lee Myung-Bak. "The South Korean presidential office said Obama supported South Korea’s response to the incident and said he “fully trusts” the investigation conducted by a team of international experts."

From the Joongang Daily

“President Lee and President Obama agreed that North Korea must honor its international obligations under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1874 and its commitment to dismantle its nuclear weapons programs,” a statement by the Blue House read. “At the same time, the leaders said North Korea must stop its belligerent course of action and that they will strengthen their alliance.”

What's next for North Korea? Another CNN report:

As for the daily lives of the people of South Korea? It feels as though nobody is worried. This has been the manner I've witnessed all year. The North constantly has threatened war for decades that it has become second nature to hear it. People go about their daily lives and don't pay much attention to the posturing of the North, its propaganda.


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